2019 Manchester Merges: Accurate Predictor

This post is for all of those statisticians out there!!!  Fresh off last night’s Rankings Reveal, here is our annual Manchester Merges Post.  One of the main reasons teams participate in Manchester Invitational is to truly see where they rate versus their division and the entire state.  Same course, same day, maybe same race situations can reveal valuable information for teams to build on for the second half of their seasons.  But, is Manchester Invitational (MI) an accurate predictor?  With the freshmen races, some teams opt to have their freshmen, no matter how good, participate, thus weakening their varsity team, which in turn distorts a team’s true status in the state.  Is this the right decision?  Does Manchester Invitational have any affect on the outcome of the State Divisional Championships, and even with a different course, Meet of Champions.

So with all that said, merges provide us with an opportunity to study.  We have provided links to the 2019 merges provided by Millennium Running.  We have also provided comparisons of how the merge fared in 2018 and links to our posts from previous years.  Warning: Long Post!!!


2019 MANCHESTER INVITATIONAL STATE AND DIVISIONAL MERGES

Manch State Merge Girls

Manch State Merge Boys

Manch D1 Merge Girls

Manch D1 Merge Boys

Manch D2 Merge Girls

Manch D2 Merge Boys

Manch D3 Merge Girls

Manch D3 Merge Boys


HOW THE MERGE FARED IN 2017 WITH MOCS

2018 MI GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2018 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Coe-Brown 207 1 Exeter 118
2 Exeter 209 2 Coe-Brown 121
3 Salem 211 3 Con-Val 155
4 Souhegan 213 4 Pinkerton 167
5 Oyster River 228 5 Oyster River 179
6 Bedford 231 6 Souhegan 194
7 Bishop Guertin 237 7 Bishop Guertin 201
8 Con-Val 244 8 Salem 205
9 Central 325 9 Bedford 222
10 Concord 345 10 Hanover 241
11 Pinkerton 378 11 Concord 242
12 Campbell 394 12 Central 245
 13 South 422 13 Hopkinton 264
 14 Hanover 433 14 Milford 298
 15 Hopkinton 437 15 Campbell 299

2018 MI BOYS MERGE                                                                    2018 MOC FINISH

Rank School Score Rank School Score
1 Concord 45 1 Concord 83
2 Coe-Brown 132 2 Oyster River 124
3 Winnacunnet 166 3 Coe-Brown 126
4 Londonderry 180 4 Keene 128
5 Oyster River 191 5 Pinkerton 156
6 Pinkerton 222 6 Winnacunnet 165
7 North 290 7 Londonderry 184
8 Mascenic 290 8 North 210
9 Souhegan 314 9 Mascenic 233
10 Hanover 340 10 Hanover 295
11 Salem 407 11 Exeter 295
12 Campbell 414 12 Campbell 311
13 Con-Val 422 13 Con-Val 331
14 Bishop Guertin 427 14 Sanborn 351
15 Bow 436 15 Souhegan 354

2018 MI D1 GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2018 D1 GIRLS FINISH

1 Exeter 110 1 Pinkerton 51
2 Salem 111 2 Exeter 84
3 Bishop Guertin 124 3 Concord 136
4 Bedford 124 4 Bishop Guertin 146
5 Central 173 5 Salem 161
6 Concord 182 6 Central 169
7 Pinkerton 192 7 Bedford 179
8 South 215 8 Keene 184
9 Keene 227 9 South 227
10 Merrimack 228 10 Merrimack 239
11 Alvirne 268 11 Londonderry 273
12 Winnacunnet 288 12 North 283
13 North 349 13 Winnacunnet 312
14 Memorial 374 14 Alvirne 356
 15 Londonderry 382 15 Dover 357

2018 MI D1 BOYS MERGE                                                                  2018 D1 BOYS FINISH

1 Concord 24 1 Concord 48
2 Winnacunnet 88 2 Keene 91
3 Londonderry 105 3 Pinkerton 104
4 Pinkerton 119 4 Winnacunnet 106
5 North 144 5 Londonderry 113
6 Salem 193 6 North 177
7 Bishop Guertin 203 7 Exeter 204
8 Merrimack 218 8 Merrimack 227
9 Exeter 249 9 Bishop Guertin 265
10 Alvirne 307 10 Alvirne 287
11 Dover 311 11 Salem 289
12 Memorial 333 12 Dover 296
13 Bedford 345 13 Memorial 337
14 South 430 14 Bedford 417
 15 Central 431 15 South

2018 D2 GIRLS MERGE                                                                        2018 D2 GIRLS FINISH

1 Souhegan 82 1 Coe-Brown 62
2 Coe-Brown 82 2 Con-Val 72
3 Oyster River 89 3 Souhegan 80
4 Con-Val 99 4 Oyster River 127
5 Hanover 164 5 Hanover 144
6 Milford 190 6 Milford 170
7 Portsmouth 191 7 Portsmouth 174
8 Merrimack Valley 226 8 Merrimack Valley 177
9 Hollis/Brookline 277 9 Kennett 310
10 Windham 311 10 Kingswood 349
11 Kingswood 315 11 John Stark 356
12 Plymouth 336 12 Hollis/Brookline 361
13 John Stark 347 13 Plymouth 364
14 St. Thomas 359 14 Windham 337
15 Bow 361 15 Bow 357

 
2018 MI D2 BOYS MERGE                                                                   2018 D2 BOYS FINISH

1 Coe-Brown 48 1 Coe-Brown 44
2 Oyster River 68 2 Oyster River 61
3 Souhegan 128 3 Hanover 97
4 Hanover 139 4 Souhegan 144
5 Con-Val 163 5 Con-Val 154
6 Bow 175 6 Sanborn 167
7 Sanborn 198 7 Bow 205
8 Merrimack Valley 226 8 Merrimack Valley 224
9 Hollis/Brookline 272 9 Windham 258
10 Windham 289 10 Hollis/Brookline 274
11 Kingswood 308 11 Kennett 288
12 Portsmouth 309 12 Portsmouth 311
13 John Stark 341 13 Kingswood 372
14 Goffstown 393 14 Goffstown 407
15 Milford 396 15 John Stark 435

2018 MI D3 GIRLS MERGE                                                                  2018 D3 GIRLS FINISH

1 Campbell 43 1 Hopkinton 52
2 Hopkinton 50 2 Campbell 81
3 Portsmouth Christian 111 3 Kearsarge 101
4 Mascenic 138 4 Lebanon 131
5 Lebanon 145 5 Monadnock 146
6 Newmarket 156 6 Newmarket 180
7 Derryfield 163 7 Mascenic 208
8 Gilford 167 8 Portsmouth Christian 209
9 Winnisquam 184 9 Derryfield 222

2018 MI D3 BOYS MERGE                                                                   2018 D3 BOYS FINISH

1 Mascenic 48 1 Mascenic 63
2 Campbell 68 2 Campbell 65
3 Trinity 128 3 Kearsarge 78
4 Monadnock 139 4 Trinity 103
5 Hopkinton 163 5 Winnisquam 151
6 Lebanon 175 6 Hopkinton 243
7 Winnisquam 198 7 Lebanon 255
8 Derryfield 226 8 Monadnock 277
9 Belmont 272 9 Berlin 285
10 Gilford 289 10 Conant 347
11 Newmarket 308 11 Gilford 355
12 Portsmouth Christian 309 12 Bishop Brady 377
13 Epping 341 13 Prospect Mountain 396
14 Newfound Reg 393 14 Moultonborough 407

2017 Comparisons

2016 Comparisons

2015 Comparisons

2014 Comparisons

2013 Comparisons

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